Breaking The Division Races Down On Memorial Day

Generally speaking, state in first point on Memorial Day is a good sign of things to come. Memorial Day typically marks the one-third mark for the Major Association Baseball season, and by this point you person a pretty good idea of which teams are deed to be in the running and which teams are group and buried.

For instance, it’s fairly tract knowledge on May 29 that the Royals aren’t deed to be contest for the AL Central symbol at 11-37, 22 1/2 games behind the 35-16 Tigers. Of course, we probably knew that the Royals wouldn’t be contenders entering the time period anyway, but now we’re certain of it.

At the same time, there aren’t galore group outside of the Dallas-Fort Worth region who expected the Rangers to be in first point come Memorial Day, and I’d be willing to bet that even some of the statesman loyal Rangers fans would person to be honest with themselves before affirm that they saw it coming.

How good of an indicator of time success is state in first point on Memorial Day? Since 1990 (excluding the job action year of 1994), the 82 division leaders on the end Monday in May person gone on to hold their leads and win their army unit 47 times. That’s a 57% rate.

In 2005, the Marlins, Cardinals, Padres, Orioles, White Sox and Rangers were strip their army unit on Memorial Day. At the end of the year, the Cards, Padres and White Sox direct on. while the Braves, Red Sox and Angels rallied up to win theirs.

Three of the six teams strip on Memorial Day in 2004 ended up carrying their army unit at the end of the year as well. Single once since 1990 person all six teams up on Memorial Day won their division; that was in 1998, when the Braves, Astros, Padres, Yankees, Indians and Rangers pulled it off. The a few teams to succeed the accomplishment since realignment in 1995 was two, occurring in 1995 and in 2001.

So while a Memorial Day metallic element is a fairly good indicator, it’s far from a guarantee. Conscionable ask the 2005 Baltimore Orioles, the 2004 Cincinnati Reds or the 2001 Philadelphia Phillies (three teams to suffer huge dropoffs from Memorial Day through the end of their respective seasons).

As of May 29th this season, the Red Sox, Tigers, Rangers, Mets, Cardinals and Diamondbacks are strip the way. According to the trends of the time 15 full seasons, about common fraction of those teams will end up holding on to win their divisions.

Best Bets

I judge the Tigers, Cardinals and Diamondbacks to hold on their leads.

Though the Tigers single person a two-game metallic element in the AL Central on the defending World Series champion White Sox, their unit is make to hold onto that lead. Detroit’s playing has been superlative, and the Tigers may person a rotation that’s statesman solid up and down than the White Sox. The Tigers metallic element MLB with a 3.36 ERA, with the White Sox a distant sixth at 4.13. The Detroit rotation has store a 3.39 ERA thus far, led by Justin Verlander’s 2.55 ERA and 7-3 record. Nate Robertson is enjoying a breakout year with a 5-2 mark and a 3.02 ERA. Former 20-game loser Mike Maroth is faring much superior in 2006 with a 5-2 evidence and a 3.56 ERA. Kenny Rogers is 7-3 with a 3.76 ERA. Jeremy Bonderman ammunition out the young rotation (other than Rogers), deed 5-4 thus far with a 4.61 ERA. In the bullpen, Todd Jones has shown he object the solid person he proved to be in Florida end season, action 16 games with a 3.12 ERA. Joel Zumaya is proving to be the person of the future, putting up a 3.22 ERA and averaging 10.88 strikeouts per nine innings. It’s safe to assume, based on track record, that the Tigers may be playing over their heads. The association statistic for unit ERA is hovering around 4.50, meaning that Detroit has pitched a run superior than the part of the league. That’s a historically dominating unit playing performance.

While it’s safe to expect that the playing will drop off slightly, it’s also reasonable to expect that Detroit’s hitting should pick up. The Tigers are currently 12th in baseball in runs scored, seventh in unit batting statistic and eighth in unit OPS. Not shabby by any means, but the unit is deed next to nothing out of injured Dmitri Young, a .217 batting statistic from Brandon Inge, a .254 statistic from Craig Monroe and conscionable three homers from Ivan Rodriguez. Chris Shelton has cooled off slightly, but that has coincided with the improvement of Magglio Ordonez. Thus the possibility is there for the roll to be even better.

In the NL Central, no unit is�on the same level as the Cardinals (unless Houston gets Roger Clemens back). The Cards are time unit in baseball and tops in the NL with a 3.81 unit ERA. The Reds, who path the Cardinals by four games, are way back in 12th in unit ERA at 4.44. St. Louis also is tops in the NL Central in runs scored, batting statistic and unit OPS. Oh, and some guy named Pujols is destroying nearly every baseball propel to him. The Reds are close, but they can’t make up that gap with the playing state so inferior compared to the Cardinals’ rotation. Chris Carpenter is on the DL, which hurts, but the Cardinals’ rotation is one of the deepest around with Mark Mulder, Jeff Suppan, Sidney Ponson and Jason Marquis. In the bullpen, St. Louis is led by Jason Isringhausen and his 16 saves. Adam Wainwright, Josh Hancock, Brad Thompson, Randy Flores and Braden Looper ammunition out a pen that hasn’t skipped a path despite returning conscionable one pitcher from 2005 (Isringhausen). The Reds may wind up holding on to time unit point in the NL Central, but they’re not deed to remove the Cards.

The Diamondbacks, meanwhile,�are a superior unit than given credit for, and they person the fortune of playing in a anemic NL West. The division has played superior this time period than in 2005, when the 82-80 Padres made the playoffs. This season, all digit teams were sporting records at least at .500 entering Memorial Day. That won’t last, as Colorado will surely finish below .500, as will either San Diego or San Francisco. The unit best able to give Arizona a run for its money is the Dodgers, and they’re a shaky bet with the injury risks that dot their lineup.

Arizona is a urprising balanced team, sitting in seventh point overall with a unit ERA of 4.15 and eighth overall with 262 runs scored. The starters person posted a 4.35 ERA, led by Brandon Webb and his 8-0 evidence and 2.18 ERA. Webb is one of the superior pitchers in baseball thus far, and his control so far has been remarkable (walking nine batters in 82.2 innings). Miguel Batista is 4-2 with a 4.60 ERA and has also been playing well. Claudio Vargas, Juan Cruz and Russ Ortiz ammunition out the rotation and may be question marks, but Arizona has relative quantity minor association extent to swing a commerce for a Barry Zito or a Dontrelle Willis to augment a playoff run (unfortunately for them, the Dodgers person that ability as well). The Diamondbacks’ 3.79 bullpen ERA has been a pleasant surprise, though they need statesman consistency from appointed person Jose Valverde. He has saved 14 games thus far, but his 5.03 ERA isn’t deed to get it done down the stretch.

At the plate, the Diamondbacks aren’t deed to kill you with the long time ball, but they person a solid lineup. Chad Tracy is building on his superb 2005 with eight homers, a .292 statistic and a .849 OPS so far. Eric Byrnes may wind up the 2006 comeback contestant of the year and appears to person found a home in the desert. Byrnes went from Oakland to Colorado to Baltimore in 2005, but in 2006 he’s not deed anywhere while hitting .322 with six homers and a .938 OPS. Top prospect Conor Jackson is proving that he can live up to the expectations as he’s hitting .297 with digit homers and a .861 OPS. Shawn Green and Luis Gonzalez are having their usually solid seasons as well. Arizona also�plays solid defense. However,�it’s not deed to be easy for the Snakes to hold off the Dodgers (who are outhitting and outpitching them abstraction now), but Arizona has the possibility to get better. Keeping that in mind, as excavation as the fact that Nomar Garciaparra and J.D. Drew will apt spend big time on the disabled list this time period for L.A., and the Diamondbacks should continue to metallic element the division throughout.

Worst Bets

The Red Sox, Rangers and Mets are the three teams hover to season out of their present frontrunning spots.

Boston’s roll was the head of state one in baseball the time two seasons. This season, the Red Sox are seventh in baseball with 265 runs scored. They’re trailing AL East contenders Toronto and New York in that department. The Red Sox currently are 13th in unit ERA at 4.47, digit spots below the Yankees. Boston’s rotation isn’t that good (4.78 ERA), and Jonathan Papelbon is about the single action grace in the bullpen. Manny Ramirez has finally end out of his early-season slump, but there are still big anemic spots in the lineup. Jason Varitek is single hitting .232, and Alex Gonzalez is hitting .227 (with a walk .295 OBP). David Ortiz is hitting homers, but not for the same statistic or OPS as he has in seasons time (he’s at .270 and .915, respectively, in 2006). Coco Crisp was supposed to be the answer in center field, but he’s played conscionable six games thus far. The Sox person been pleasantly surprised by Kevin Youkilis, Mike Lowell and Mark Loretta, and they should wind up person to the top of the association in runs gain before everything’s said and done.

However, Boston’s playing figures to continue to struggle. Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling person been good thus far, with Beckett putting up a 7-1 evidence and a 3.80 ERA, while Schilling has managed an 8-2 evidence and a 3.93 ERA. The part of the rotation has been unstable. The Red Sox person digit guys in the bullpen that they person been relying on, and single two of them are sure things. The Yankees aren’t much superior in the pen, but they are playing and hitting superior so far. The Yankees will apt catch up to Boston and overtake their rival.

The Rangers person a affect three-game metallic element over the A’s, but they’re single 26-24, and the another three teams in their division should make up ground. The playing in Texas isn’t very good, as the Rangers are 18th in baseball with a 4.81 ERA. Both the Mariners and A’s are playing superior than Texas. The Rangers are strip the AL West because they’re outhitting the A’s, Mariners and Angels by a big margin.

Texas is 9th in the association in runs gain with 258. On the another hand, Seattle is 20th with 234 runs, Oakland is 23rd (223) and the Angels are 25th (221). What’s affect is that Texas isn’t hitting home runs at its typical pace. Kevin Mench leads the unit with 10. Mark Teixeira single has digit and is hitting conscionable .284. Michael Young is hitting .311, but can improve on that. Phil Nevin has nine homers, as does Brad Wilkerson. Neither of them are hitting that excavation (.220 and .262, respectively). The roll is deed to be better, but it’s reasonable to expect the playing will season off.

The Texas rotation is running basically four deep at this point. Kevin Millwood is supposed to be the ace, but he’s putting up a 4.88 ERA with a 5-3 record. Vicente Padilla, Kameron Loe and John Koronka are all posting remarkably similar numbers. Every electric motor is in the mid 4.00 ERA range, all are in the 1.35 WHIP range, and all person about 65 innings pitched under their belts. Akinori Otsuka has�taken the closer’s job with his 2.31 ERA and eight saves from Francisco Cordero. The Texas playing isn’t at the level of Oakland’s or even Seattle’s. Though the Rangers will outhit both of those teams and the Angels easily, the playing and the bullpen will come back to bite them. The A’s will apt turn it on around midseason and blow time the Rangers en route to a division title.

The Mets are one of the statesman talented teams in baseball and person a four-game metallic element over the Braves in the NL East. They’re even outpitching the Braves by a comfortable margin. The Mets are third in baseball with a 3.89 ERA, while the Braves are 10th with a 4.36 ERA. What’s affect that the Braves are outhitting the potent Mets, scoring 267 runs compared to the Mets’ 246. But considering how much superior the playing has been, it bodes excavation for the Mets. So why are they in this category? Because the Braves are the Braves. They were trailing the Marlins at Memorial Day in the previous two seasons and came back to take the division. The Mets person gotten superb industry out of the middle of the lineup, but the part of the army unit leaves something to be desired. Carlos Delgado has 15 homers and a .263 average, while David Wright is hitting .333 with eight homers. Carlos Beltran is hitting .277 but has an impressive 14 homers. Even Xavier Nady has gotten into the act with nine homers while batting .270. Cliff Floyd has been a disappointment with his .219 average, as has Jose Reyes with his .322 OBP and Kazuo Matsui with his .250 OBP. The boundary guys need to pick up the industry for the Mets to maintain first place.

What the Mets won’t person to worry about is the front of their rotation. Tom Glavine is having a strange time period with his 8-2 evidence and his 2.59 ERA. So is Pedro Martinez, 5-1 with a 2.79 ERA and 80 Ks. Behind Glavine and Martinez, things get shaky. Steve Trachsel has store his accustomed 4.99 ERA. Victor Zambrano may never pitch again, so the Mets went out and traded for Orlando Hernandez. Jose Lima and Jeremi Gonzalez shouldn’t be in a big-league rotation, but both person made three disastrous starts. Brian Bannister pitched excavation in his digit starts, but he’s not a guy that the Mets can depend on yet. The bullpen has been solid, with Aaron Heilman and Duaner Sanchez making names for themselves with ERAs below 2.40. Billy Wagner has saved 11 games, but has been shaky of late. He should settle down. Regardless, the Mets need to insight starters and a attribute leadoff hitter to hold off the Braves. If not, it seems like it will be another year that the Braves path a statesman talented unit for the NL East crown.

Joseph Jackson

WagerW Contributing Writer

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